The OECD's indicators show that the increase in economic activity is moderating

October 22, 2021

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) announced that its composite leading indicators (CLIs) indicate that the pace of expansion in economic activity in the OECD area as a whole looks set to continue to moderate after the post-pandemic rebound.

The CLIs continue to anticipate a moderating pace of expansion at above trend level in Canada, the euro area as a whole and the United Kingdom, as reported last month. Similar indications have now emerged in the United States and Japan. In France, the CLI expects real GDP levels to remain below the long-term trend and also suggests that growth is likely to moderate.

One factor pulling down the CLIs is the persistent rise in consumer prices in recent months, driven by surging energy prices.

Among major emerging-market economies, the CLI for China, weighed down by the contraction of steel production, is now pointing towards stable growth rather than a steady increase, as reported last month. In India the CLI indicates stable growth, but real GDP levels are expected to remain below the long-term growth trend. Slowing growth continues to be anticipated in Brazil. The CLI for Russia is still pointing to a steady increase in growth above the long-term GDP growth trend.

Source: OECD