December 1, 2023
According to the World Trade Organization's (WTO) latest Goods Trade Barometer, the volume of global merchandise trade is recovering after its recent slump, with automobile sales and production and electronic components trade driving the recovery. However, mixed economic results coupled with increasing geopolitical tensions make the near-term outlook highly uncertain.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
The current reading of 100.7 for the barometer index is above the previous reading of 99.1 from last August and close to the baseline value of 100. This suggests that merchandise trade volume will gradually revert towards its medium-term trend in the second half of 2023, although uncertainty remains high.
The full Goods Trade Barometer is available here (pdf).