According to the latest "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" released by the World Trade Organization (WTO), global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict.

Supply chains adapted and strong investment in artificial intelligence provided a powerful boost to goods trade. However, the resilience was not uniform, with services trade and some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict. WTO economists have therefore raised the forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2026 while lowering the outlook for services trade.

Merchandise trade volume is now expected to grow by 3.9% in 2026, up from the March forecast of 1.9%, before increasing further to 4.1% in 2027.

The revision reflects evidence that global supply chains adapted to disruptions in energy and fertilizer markets, while strong investment in AI-related infrastructure boosted trade in AI-enabling goods.

 

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